To: Interested Parties
From: KC Hanson, Chair, Democratic Party of Oregon
Re: Early Returns on Election Night are Unlikely to Tell the Full Story
Key Takeaway
The combination of Oregon’s new voting laws, the trend toward later voting, and a surge in volunteer efforts in the final ten days will result in a significant, potentially decisive, portion of votes being counted after initial returns are reported tonight at 8pm.
Oregon Implemented New Voter Access Laws in 2022
Oregon has the best voter access laws in the country. As the first state to adopt statewide vote by mail and the first state to adopt automatic voter registration, Oregon is considered a leader in the effort to increase voter access.
In the last two years, Oregon has taken further strides by passing two new voter access laws that will change how and when people vote:
- Allowing ballots to be mailed on Election Day. (HB 3291, 2021.)
- Allowing ballots to be mailed without a postage stamp. (SB 861, 2019.)
Voting is Trending Later, and Data Shows Late Votes Will Break for Democrats
Voters are already trending toward turning in their ballots later. For example, see Multnomah County results from recent midterm primary elections:
- 2018 Primary, 36% of ballots received on Election Day
- 2022 Primary, 46% of ballots received on or after Election Day as voters took advantage of the new “postmarked by” rule.
The 2022 Primary was the first opportunity to observe the impact of the new postmark law on vote timing and vote counting patterns. In that election, 7% of ballots were postmarked on Election Day and received in Elections Offices in the days following. Since primary voters are more regular voters, it’s likely that an even greater share of the general electorate will wait until Election Day.
This data means that a significant, potentially decisive share of votes will likely be absent from initial vote tallies announced on election night.
As of Monday November 7, data showed that voting turnout in Multnomah and Washington Counties were behind the statewide average (-4.1% and -3.6% respectively). However, there is no reason to believe that these counties will have a significant undervote, which means a significant portion of these ballots will be counted on or after Election Day. This shows late votes are likely to break for Democrats considering that 42.5% of all Democrats in Oregon live in Multnomah and Washington Counties.
Most counties will update election results multiple times on Election night and in the days ahead as they continue to process ballots cast on Election Day. However, Clackamas County has indicated it may update vote tallies less frequently than other counties, which could delay the ability to project winners in the Governor’s race, Oregon’s Fifth Congressional race, and other local races.
Democratic Volunteers Surge Efforts in Final 10 Days of Election
The coordinated effort to support Democrats up and down the ballot has ramped up for the final ten days of the election. In just over a week, volunteers knocked on over 200,000 doors – more than double the total of the last three months combined.
On Saturday and Sunday alone, over 1,400 Oregonians knocked on the doors of over 71,500 households statewide. In addition, hundreds of volunteers made phone calls to urge voters to turn in their ballots by Tuesday, November 8 at 8pm.
Early Returns on Election Night are Unlikely to Tell the Full Story
The combination of Oregon’s new voting laws, the trend toward later voting, and a surge in volunteer efforts in the final ten days will result in a significant, potentially decisive, portion of votes being counted after initial returns are reported tonight at 8pm.
Under the new postmark law, ballots mailed on Election Day will count if they are received up to seven days after Election Day, so vote tallies will likely take noticeably longer than in years past.
As such, the single largest block of Democratic votes in the state are unlikely to be counted until after Election Day.
Journalists, pundits, and election onlookers will be wise to settle in for several days of vote counting in any close race in the state, particularly for statewide races and contests where a significant portion of voters live in Multnomah County.
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